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« on: April 07, 2025, 08:56:52 AM »
Ammunition prices are about to explode. Here’s why.
A perfect storm is forming in the ammunition market—one that will likely hit the U.S. civilian sector hard in the coming months. The American consumer is about to feel the pain of dramatically rising ammunition costs and availability.
I’ve been speaking with several manufacturers across the industry, and a consistent message is emerging: the supply of gunpowder is critically low, and where it’s available, the costs are staggering compared to just a few years ago.
Gunpowder that once cost $8 per pound is now being offered at $30 per pound and going to $40—if you can even find it. Some manufacturers I’ve spoken with are refusing to buy at those prices, choosing instead to shut down production lines for low-margin calibers like 9mm, citing concerns that the civilian market demand won’t support the required retail pricing.
This is a serious problem for the American consumer, particularly for those who rely on affordable target and self-defense rounds. And unfortunately, gunpowder is just one part of the equation.
We're also seeing major price pressures across ammunition components due to a combination of:
· Newly implemented tariffs on imported materials
· Rising global copper demand, particularly driven by electric vehicles, data centers, and energy infrastructure
· A looming supply gap in domestic copper availability
To put this in perspective: brass, which is 70% copper, has become significantly more expensive. Copper prices have jumped from $2.20 /lb in 2020 to $5.74/lb (post-tariff), raising the material cost of every brass case.
The U.S. is expected to import an additional 1 million tons of copper by 2026, straining the supply chain and leaving ammo manufacturers asking: Will there be enough copper left for brass cases?
The ammunition industry is now being forced to rethink everything—from materials to manufacturing priorities—and explore new ways to keep products in stock and prices sustainable.
This isn’t just about inflation. It’s about access, availability, and the long-term resilience of the civilian ammunition supply chain.
If you’re seeing similar trends or have thoughts on where this is heading, I’d welcome the discussion.
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